Posts Tagged ‘NJ Governor’

Will a Garden Trip be Enough to Make Christie Governor of the Garden State?

Tuesday, July 14th, 2009

A “garden trip” in harness racing is when a horse has the position on the rail just behind the leader, thought by most to be ideal.  In the New Jersey Governor’s race, Chris Christie seems to be in great position, running with a law enforcement background against an unpopular incumbent.  But things aren’t always as they seem.

Strike 1-  Christie has led every poll taken over the last month, but voters in New Jersey historically decide late. Just ask Tom Kean Jr.

Strike 2 – Christie, by taking public funding, must limit his campaign spending to $15.9 million. Corzine could easily double or triple that amount.

Strike 3 – NJ has over 725,ooo more Democrats than Republicans, and is trending more Democratic (See: NJ Turns a Darker Shade of Blue).

Strike 4 – Corzine is polling very low among Democrats, around 70%, but Christie was unable to reach 60% in the June Republican primary.

While the State of New Jersey would clearly be better off if Chris Christie were elected as its next Governor, hwever history is not on his side.  After all, Republicans have not elected a Senator in New Jersey since 1972, and only three Republicans have been elected Governor in the last 50 years.

NJ Turns a Darker Shade of Blue

Tuesday, July 7th, 2009

Since the last gubernatorial election in 2005, the number of registered voters in New Jersey has remained steady at approximately 4.8 million, with 24% of voters registered as Democrats, 18% registered as Republicans, and 58% registered with another political party or unaffiliated with any political party at all. But during the Presidential election year of 2008, the state registered 554,000 new voters, bringing the total amount of registered voters up to 5.3 million. Where did these additional voters come from, and what party did they register under?

The number of registered voters under the Democratic Party rose from 24% in 2007 to 33% in 2008.  Bergen, Essex, Middlesex, Hudson, and Union County  picked up the majority of the new Democratic voters.  These counties comprise nearly 50% of all registered Democratic voters in the state. Overall, the Democratic Party increased by 618,052 new voters. The increase cannot be solely attributed to new registrants as it is partially due to the decline in unaffiliated voters.  In 2008,  244,000 unaffiliated voters changed their party membership to either Democrat or Republican.

This chart compares registration figures from 2007 to  2008.

The map below shows the counties which experienced the largest increase in Democratic Party registration.

nj-dem-rv21