A “garden trip” in harness racing is when a horse has the position on the rail just behind the leader, thought by most to be ideal. In the New Jersey Governor’s race, Chris Christie seems to be in great position, running with a law enforcement background against an unpopular incumbent. But things aren’t always as they seem.
Strike 1- Christie has led every poll taken over the last month, but voters in New Jersey historically decide late. Just ask Tom Kean Jr.
Strike 2 – Christie, by taking public funding, must limit his campaign spending to $15.9 million. Corzine could easily double or triple that amount.
Strike 3 – NJ has over 725,ooo more Democrats than Republicans, and is trending more Democratic (See: NJ Turns a Darker Shade of Blue).
Strike 4 – Corzine is polling very low among Democrats, around 70%, but Christie was unable to reach 60% in the June Republican primary.
While the State of New Jersey would clearly be better off if Chris Christie were elected as its next Governor, hwever history is not on his side. After all, Republicans have not elected a Senator in New Jersey since 1972, and only three Republicans have been elected Governor in the last 50 years.