Look, we’re in the Stone Age now.  We’re letting 115 million homes be guided by 11,000, which I think in this day and age is ridiculous.  At some point, we are going to take the set-top boxes or DVR info, and at least we have the millions at that point instead of 11,000.  Will some of the data be skewed upscale?  Yeah.  Is there a way of figuring out how to make it more reliable?  Maybe downscale it somehow.  If a company can come up with some kind of metric using DVR data that somehow makes it more reliable across the U.S., you would think they’d make a fortune.

Larry Novenstern
Executive Vice President, Managing Director, NewCast@Optimedia

This television market map shows Brown’s margin of victory by county:

Martha Coakley spent $628,000 on broadcast and cable during the Democratic primary from 11/13-12/8. At that time, Coakley was ahead of Brown in the polls by 15%-30%. Brown first placed advertising the week of 12/30, spending $380,000 on broadcast and cable, airing positive ads such as “JFK”, “Hey, Dad”, and “Response”. For the last two weeks leading up until the election, Brown spent a total of $2.7 million, gaining an even position with Coakley in the polls. Coakley responded with negative ads on 1/7, and placed $2.1 million for the last two weeks of the election. While these negative response ads were airing, Brown skyrocketed ahead in the polls as far as a nine point lead two days before the election.

Both candidates spent the bulk of their dollars in the Boston market, each placing around $2.4 million.

This map shows Coakley’s spending by television market:

This map shows Brown’s spending by television market:

This chart shows each candidate’s spending by week: Massachusetts Broadcast and Cable Spending

Several issue groups also placed advertising in Boston regarding this special election, including American Future Fund, Americans For Responsible Healthcare, Chamber of Commerce, Citizens for Strength & Security, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, Employment Policies Institute, League of American Voters, League of Conservation Voters, National Republican Trust PAC, SEIU, Tea Party Express.

Unofficial election results from www.boston.com
Polling data from www.politico.com

 While negative advertising has been around in retail as well, usually it is based on the smaller share attacking the industry leader, not a back and forth battle. The classic examples are Pepsi vs. Coke and more recently Mac vs Windows:

 Usually the leader would ignore the competitor to maintain their brand’s positive image. However, a new trend emerging is an actual response from the leaders in the example of the recent Verizon and AT&T 3G ad campaign.  Verizon’s television ads display a map comparing the two coverages and even uses a play on words for AT&T’s exclusive contract with the popular IPhone, mimicking “There’s an app for that” with “There’s a map for that”.  The difference from other retail negative campaigns is that AT&T responded to these claims with an ad of their own showing their coverage map and even hired a Hollywood actor to deliver the message. Here are the two ads:

AT&T might have been just trying to dispel misleading accusations, but the fact that they rolled out a large-scale campaign instead of a simple press release is significant. The two companies even sued and countersued each other reminiscent of a bitter political campaign debate.  Whether this is a bigger trend or an isolated instance is yet to be seen.

While I am very pro-advertising, I have to give the thumbs down here.  What benefit did I get from the ad?  It did not allow me a free service, nor was it relevant to my interests.  I guess you could make the same argument for cable and the internet, but at the very least I am getting better programs and faster download speed.  As marketers we need to realize what is at stake, a personalized one-to-one relationship with our audience.  Lets not make mobile ads the next spam.

Click on the image for a more detailed view of the map.

McDonnell beat his opponent Creigh Deeds by a margin of 10% or higher in 102 of Virginia’s 134 counties. He won 87 of those counties by a margin of 20% or higher. McDonnell even won the notoriously liberal Fairfax County, albeit by a slim margin of 1.63%.

In 2006, Sen. Jim Webb only won 26 counties by a margin of 10% or higher. Webb lost in 93 counties and won in 41, but managed to secure the big Northern Virginia counties such as Fairfax, Arlington, Prince William, and Loudon.

Despite the heightened media attention this gubernatorial race received, the 2009 election saw a lower voter turnout than in previous years. On Election Day, 40% of registered voters showed up at the polls. In the 2006 Senatorial race, 53% of registered voters participated in the election.

Click here to see the historical statewide election results from 1997 to 2009.

Bob McDonnell also went up on air in May, although he had no primary election to win. He went up the week of 5/11, one week after Deeds. McDonnell placed $2.3 million in statewide broadcast and cable (including DC) from 5/11-7/3.

Each candidate stayed off air for the month of July, and the majority of August. Both Deeds and McDonnell went back up on air on 8/25 in Charlottesville, Harrisonburg, Norfolk, Richmond, Roanoke, and Tri-Cities broadcast and cable. Each candidate began placing advertising in the Washington, DC market the week of 9/7, and continually ran statewide advertising until election day.

Creigh Deeds placed a total of $7.4 million in broadcast and cable advertising for the General Election (8/25-11/3). Deeds placed a grand total of $8.7 million in broadcast and cable for the entire election since 5/4. Bob McDonnell placed a total of $7.2 million broadcast and cable advertising for the General Election (8/25-11/3). McDonnell placed a grand total of $9.5 million in broadcast and cable for the entire election since 5/11.

This chart details how much money each candidate has spent by week, by market for the entire election.

While the races in New Jersey and Virginia have been hotly contested, they have been more like a bump than a boom for TV stations.  Sure Mayor Bloomberg has spent good deal of money, but the lack of opposition seems to be even curbing his spending.  While political advertising is now a legitimate and growing category, spending in 2009 is not going to replace the auto industry.  2010 is another story… stay tuned.

Virginia broadcast and cable began airing new political advertising this week from the candidates running for Attorney General and Lieutenant Governor.

Ken Cuccinelli for Attorney General, Steve Shannon for Attorney General, and Bill Bolling for Lieutenant Governor all placed ads in the Norfolk, Richmond, Roanoke, Tri-Cities, and DC markets, while Deeds and McDonnell continued with their statewide advertising schedules. The above map compares how much each candidate spent by market for the week of 9/22-9/28.

This chart details how much money each candidate and issue group has placed in each market since the week of 8/31, and show the grand total of spending since 5/11.

Cuccinelli placed a total of $672k in Norfolk, Richmond, and Roanoke broadcast for five weeks of advertising from 9/29-11/2.

Click here to see a map of Cuccinelli’s spending.

Shannon placed a total of $140k in Norfolk, Richmond, Roanoke, Tri-Cities, and DC broadcast and cable for one week, 9/22-9/27. He placed $100k of the total sum in Norfolk, Richmond, and Roanoke broadcast, and he placed $40k of the total sum in Norfolk, Richmond, Roanoke, Tri-Cities, and DC cable networks NB, CNN, FXNC, HLN, MNBC, TNT, and USA.

Click here to see a map of Shannon’s spending.

Bolling placed a total of $74k in Norfolk, Richmond, Roanoke, and DC broadcast and cable for 9/22-9/28. He placed $67k of the total sum in broadcast, and he placed $8k of the total sum in Norfolk and DC cable networks CNN, DISC, ESPN, and HIST.

Click here to see a map of Bolling’s spending.

Creigh Deeds placed a total of $807k in Virginia broadcast and cable for 9/22-9/29. He placed $661k of the total sum in broadcast, and he placed $146k of the total sum in cable networks CNN, ESPN, TLC, AEN, DISC, HGTV, LIF, TBS, TNT, USA, BRVO, and MNBC.

Click here to see a map of Deeds’ spending.

Bob McDonnell placed a total of $648k in statewide broadcast and cable for 9/21-9/28. He placed $528k of the total sum in broadcast, and $120k of the total sum in cable CNB, AMC, CNN, DISC, ESPN, FXNC, FOOD, HGTV, HIST, TNT, USA, TWC, SPK, and LIF.

Click here to see a map of McDonnell’s spending.

Candidate Spending in Richmond, VA: WRIC-TV, WRLH-TV, WTVR-TV, and WWBT-TV

Bob McDonnell consistently paid the lowest cost per point each week out of all the candidates who advertised during the Virginia Primary. He paid an average $53 CPP each week, achieving around 670 GRPs each flight during his first three weeks on air. Overall, he spent $156k and gained a total of 2,967 GRPs from 5/4-6/9.

Terry McAuliffe paid a higher cost per point for advertising. More inconsistent in each flight than McDonnell, McAuliffe paid an average of $62 CPP per week. But with $286k to spend in the market, he achieved the most GRPs out of anyone – a total of 4,631 GRPs.

Creigh Deeds paid the highest cost per point out of all the candidates, averaging $66 CPP. He also proved inconsistent in comparison to McDonnell each week. Deeds spent $192k in Richmond and achieved 2,895 GRPs.

As an issue group, Common Sense Virginia paid a much higher cost per point than any of the candidates. They paid an average $92 CPP each week, spending a total of $186k and gaining a total of 2,021 GRPs.

These charts detail each candidate’s gross ratings points, monetary spending, cost per points, and total spots purchased in Richmond during the weeks of 5/4, 5/11, 5/18, 6/1, and 6/8.

Candidate Spending in Washington, DC: WJLA-TV, WRC-TV, WTTG-TV, WUSA-TV

Bob McDonnell went up on air in the Washington, DC market the week of 5/11 and stayed up for four weeks until the week of 6/8. He paid the lowest cost per point in the DC market as well, averaging $430 CPP each week. McDonnell spent a total of $930,600, gaining a total of 2,163 GRPs.

Terry McAuliffe paid the highest cost per point – $808, nearly double of that which McDonnell paid. He waited until the week of 5/25 to go up on air, placing a total of $636k in the market and achieving 788 GRPs.

Creigh Deeds went up on air in the Washington, DC market one week before the election on 6/9. He placed $285k – half of his entire broadcast budget for 6/1-6/9 – in this one market. Deeds paid an average $594 CPP and achieved 480 GRPs.

These charts detail each candidate’s gross ratings points, monetary spending, cost per points, and total spots purchased in Washington, DC during the weeks of 5/11, 5/18, 6/1, and 6/8.