As we’ve watched this cycle boom and bust, incumbents have gone down or won by the skin of their teeth in both parties, and upset candidates have come out of nowhere.  In many of these cases its because of 3^rd party actors.   In the case of recently nominated candidate Sharron Angle, 3^rd party spending may have been the deciding factor.  In the week before the primary election on June 8^th 3^rd Party Actors (Tea Party Express, Our Country Deserves Better PAC, and Club for Growth) spent over $110k in Las Vegas and Reno Broadcast running ads touting Angle and disparaging her primary former Party Chairman Sue Lowden.  This $130k buy (plus her own $19k) allowed Sharron Angle to compete financially with her much better funded opponent Sue Lowden who was able to spend $97k in the final week of the election.

On the other hand if you have nothing but enemies, things can get pretty painful.   Just recently Inc. Sen. Blanche Lincoln was primaried by Lt. Gov. Bill Halter.  Lincoln had maintained a record that was deemed unacceptably pure by the National Democrat base.   As a result, this Arkansas Democrat was brutally attacked by outside interests including the Communications Workers of America, AFSCME, and Arkansans for Change.  These organizations expended over $897k in broadcast television alone in their war on Lincoln.   These attacks, plus the Halter campaign’s significant financial resources, forced the Lincoln campaign to spend over 85% of her campaign fund before she’s reached the general.  This spending had substantively negative impact on the Lincoln campaign.  Lincoln was barely re-elected in a run-off (receiving 52% of the vote).  As of the 5/18 FEC filing, Lincoln (the two-term incumbent) will be forced to enter the General Election in a situation of (roughly) financial parity with her opponent, Congressman John Boozeman.

As a result, we can see the importance of 3^rd party spending and making sure that you have a little help from your friends………………

With the Kentucky Senate Primary being one of the hottest in the nation (and happening today!), we at Smart Media Group wanted to do a quick recap of the situation this morning while voters go to the polls. Trey Grayson has outspent Paul in the vast majority of the state, losing only in the Paducah and Cincinnati markets. Despite beating Paul in the spending contest (Grayson outspent Paul by about $172k) Paul is cruising to victory in the latest polls.

Despite Grayson’s spending advantages, he is currently down by almost 20%in the Pollster average. Based off of Grayson and Paul’s spending information, however, we would expect Grayson to most outperform his statewide results in the Lexington and Charleston-Huntington DMAs. These are the two markets that Grayson most outspent Paul ($60k & $21k respectively). We would expect Paul to outperform his state average in the Cincinnati and Paducah Markets where he outspent Grayson by approximately $12k and $2k.

The spending information show that Paul has put significantly more money than Grayson into the 3rd biggest market in the state (Cincinnati), whereas Grayson has outspent Paul in the biggest Market in the state (Lexington). As a result, while Grayson has outspent Paul in almost every market in the state (totaling some 84.11% of registered voters), Paul’s strong lead in the Polls will make this an interesting study in buying effectiveness once we have the final results.

The Kentucky Republican nomination for its U.S. Senate seat is a highly competitive race with national focus. In it we are seeing an intra-Republican party fight highlighting the feud between the establishment Republican Party (embodied by Secretary of State Trey Grayson) and outsider Tea-party candidate Rand Paul (the son of US Congressman Ron Paul). As you can see in an earlier post Grayson and Paul are involved in a fight and spending left and right to see who runs the Grand Old Party. The candidates have spent a combined total of $1.7 million in a two month campaign. We at Smart Media Group are left with one big question. Who is buying more effectively?

To determine this we’ve a simple marginal cost analysis to see who is paying the least amount of money per point they gain in the polls, and how much will they have to spend to cross the finish line and reach that 50 plus one margin of victory.

The answer is Rand Paul. Paul has paid a total of $149k per polling point during the month of March. Grayson on the other hand was paying $198k per polling point during the month of March. This means that not only is Paul buying more effectively than Secretary Grayson, it also means that with his current lead in the polls Paul’s total price to victory would be $746k (well within his current Cash on Hand) compared to Grayson’s whopping $3.9 million dollars (or 3 times his total Cash on Hand at the end of the Quarter).

The 2010 Illinois Democratic Primary for Governor was expensive, competitive, and downright nasty. Together, Governor Quinn and Comptroller Hynes spent almost $8.5 million dollars on television advertising over the course of four months. At the start of the campaign (in August of 2009), Hynes was polling 28 points down on incumbent governor Pat Quinn. By January 26 (the last public poll of the campaign) Comptroller Hynes was leading Governor Quinn by 1 point, and would go onto lose the race by that very margin.

In the intervening months, Hynes spent 4 million dollars, introduced himself to the voters, and engaged in a negative ad war with Governor Quinn. On January 16, 2010 Hynes registered a shock he was for the first time polling within four points of Governor Quinn. In the period between the last public poll (12/8/09) and the January 16th poll, Hynes had made a massive push spending $979k and almost tying Governor Quinn’s $998k buy. Hyne’s more efficient buying, however, (in the last week of the campaign Hynes out purchased Quin in the Chicago DMA 1317 to 1150), allowed him to reach a greater audience with his message than the incumbent governor. Additionally, Hynes use of controversial ads, allowed him to earn hundreds of points in earned media. If we compare the two graphs, one showing Quinn and Hynes’ spending, and the other their polling we can actually see that when Hynes began to spend, this race began shifting from a Quinn favored blow out to a neck and neck race.

The Commercial Appeal newspaper in Memphis did some coverage on the Senate race. The article highlights Bill Haslam and his commercials that aired during the Olympics. The people in the community had positive feedback to say on the commericals. To read the article click on the link below.

http://www.commercialappeal.com/news/2010/mar/21/struggle-for-gop-votes-hits-w-tenn/

The Republican primary to replace incumbent Senator Jim Bunning (R-K) has recently begun heating up. Secretary of State Trey Grayson has launched his campaign onto the airwaves. Buying time over three weeks, he has placed hundreds of points into the Bowling Green, Charleston, Cincinnati, Evansville, hazard, Knoxville, Lexington, Louisville, Nashville, and Paducah markets. By doing this, Grayson has been able two ads up on the air. This “shotgun style” spending has allowed Grayson to get his two contrast ads up in almost every DMA in the state. Both of Grayson’s contrast ads can be seen here and here.

Rand Paul has not, however, been idle. Paul has actually led the charge for air presence in KY buying up time far in advance, and shoveling over $80,000 into the Lexington and Louisville markets. This heavy concentration of his resources in these two markets has allowed Paul to dominate Grayson in the state’s two largest markets (they represent roughly 60% of voters in KY). As a result, in these two markets, Paul was able to earn hundreds of points for both his positive and contrast ad.