In many ways, Mitt Romney seems like a stereotypical Republican. A rich, white businessman, groomed by the party he wants to lead. The last two Republican presidents were from the same mold. Yet there’s one big difference between Romney and all the recent Republican nominees — he’s a northerner.

Since the end of World War II, Republicans have nominated two Texans (both Bushes), two Californians (Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan) and two Arizonans (Barry Goldwater and John McCain). Dwight Eisenhower spent most of his adult life outside the United States. Gerald Ford was the last northern Republican president, but he only won the Republican nomination as an incumbent president. Bob Dole, meanwhile, was a senator from Kansas.

Not only is Romney the first real northerner on the GOP ticket since Ford, he’s the first Republican nominee who made his political career in the Northeast going all the way back to New York Gov. Thomas Dewey in 1948. The Republican Party, up to that point, was a party that was strongest in the Northeast, but that was eons ago politically. Dewey’s best state in 1948 was Vermont, which was Obama’s best state outside of his semi-home state of Hawaii in 2008.

Even compared to the Reagan era, the political landscape has changed dramatically. According to Rendezvous with Destiny, Craig Shirley’s account of the 1980 campaign, President Jimmy Carter spent the last week of his campaign in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Florida, Mississippi, Missouri, Texas, Tennessee and California. These days, New York, New Jersey and California are safely Democratic and Mississippi, Texas, Tennessee and, most likely, Missouri are safely Republican. In the past two decades, Democrats became the dominant party in the densely populated coastal states and Republicans have locked up most of the South.

Part of this change has to do with regional identity. After running many Sun Belt candidates for president, Republicans are now dominant among whites in that part of the country. There’s little need to devote energy to winning over these voters. With most of the Sun Belt secure — California being the notable exception — a Republican candidate can afford to focus most of his energy on winning over swing voters in the North and Midwest.

Despite being from the Northeast, Romney’s best chances to change the electoral map may be in the industrial Midwest. He was raised in suburban Detroit and his father served as governor of Michigan. With the perspective of a northern suburbanite, Romney may be able to connect with voters in key suburban areas like Cleveland, Detroit, Milwaukee and Des Moines in a way that a Sun Belt Republican just couldn’t.

Chris Palko works as an assistant media analyst at Smart Media Group, a Republican political media buying agency in Alexandria, Va. He is a graduate of American University and George Washington University’s Graduate School of Political Management.

A version of this post was also published on Campaign and Election’s blog, Campaign Insider.

A dozen swing states will determine the outcome of the presidential election. That’s a given. But within these so-called purple states, not all areas are swing. In Ohio, for instance, Cuyahoga County — home to Cleveland — would vote for a Democrat regardless of the candidate, while mostly rural Shelby County will vote Republican no matter what. The formula is simple: win the swing counties, win the swing states and win the presidency. That’s what President Obama did in 2008 and, for that matter, what George W. Bush did in 2004. Now, Mitt Romney will need to be competitive in these areas in order to unseat the president. Here’s a closer look at some of the larger counties where the Romney campaign will be fighting its battles this fall.

10. Forsyth County, N.C.     Population: 350,670     Largest city: Winston-Salem

Forsyth is like a county-sized version of North Carolina. Its racial demographics are very close to the state average. It has Wake Forest University, so there’s the presence of liberal-leaning academic whites like in the Raleigh-Durham area. Winston-Salem has a large amount of urban Republican neighborhoods like in Charlotte. And it has rural precincts on the outskirts of the county that are heavily Republican like the rest of rural North Carolina.

Past results: Bush won here in 2004 with 54 percent of the vote. Obama took it in 2008 with 55 percent.

9. Hillsborough County, N.H.     Population: 400,721      Largest city: Manchester

Most of New Hampshire’s population is close to the Massachusetts state line, which Hillsborough County straddles. It contains a vital grouping of towns and cities including Manchester and Nashua, the two largest cities in the state. Both are swing communities, in the electoral sense.

Past results: Bush edged Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass) here in 2004 with 51 percent, but it flipped to Obama in 2008.

8. Prince William County, Va.     Population: 402,002     Largest community: Dale City

Prince William County is an exurban county about 25 miles southwest of Washington D.C. It’s on the edge between the traditional, conservative Virginia, and the more progressive suburbs outside the capital. Prince William has become very diverse in recent years, particularly in the I-95 corridor. A hard swing towards Obama was key for him winning Virginia.

Past results: Bush took 53 percent of the vote here in 2004, but Obama bettered that total (58 percent) in his 2008 win.

7. Chester County, Pa.     Population: 498,886     Largest city: West Chester

Of the four suburban Philadelphia counties, Chester was the only one that Bush won in 2004. The tail end of the prestigious Main Line is in the county, but so is the disadvantaged city of Coatesville. In between, there are plenty of middle-class suburbs, and even still some farmland. This is one of the few counties in Pennsylvania showing substantial population growth, so its importance is increasing.

Past results: Bush won here with 52 percent. Obama, in 2008, took it with 55 percent

6. Jefferson County, Colo.     Population: 534,543     Largest city: Lakewood

Colorado is a heavily polarized state divided between very liberal Democrats in Denver and Boulder, and very conservative Republicans in Colorado Springs and the rural areas. The balance of power is held by the handful of counties in suburban Denver. Jefferson County to the west of the city is truly a purple county closely mirroring Colorado’s overall results in the last two presidential contests.

Past results: In 2004, Bush edged Kerry here 53-47. Obama won in 2008 with 55 percent.

5. Arapahoe County, Colo.     Population: 572,003     Largest city: Aurora

Arapahoe County is to the southeast of Denver and, like Jefferson, it’s a purple county that determines which party wins Colorado. It contains most of Aurora, the second biggest city in the Denver area. The county, and Aurora in particular, has seen a major increase in its Hispanic population in the past decade. This development has made the county a bit more Democratic than its neighbors.

Past results: Bush took it with 52 percent of the vote. Obama did better – winning it with 57 percent in 2008.

4. Hamilton County, Ohio     Population: 802,374     Largest city: Cincinnati

Cincinnati is one of the most Republican metro areas outside of the South, but the central city county of Hamilton is a swing county. Hamilton County is worth watching, in part, because African-American turnout will be crucial. Sustaining high African-American turnout can make or break Obama’s reelection hopes.

Past results: Bush won it with 53 percent in 2004. Four years later, Obama mirrored his result – the first Democrat since Lyndon Johnson to carry the county.

3. Wake County, N.C.     Population: 900,993     Largest city: Raleigh

In the Raleigh-Durham area, Durham and Orange counties (Chapel Hill) are overwhelmingly Democratic, with a mixture of African Americans and academia-based white liberals. But Wake County (Raleigh and its suburbs) is much more competitive. Suburban communities like Cary are much more akin to the northern middle-of-the-road suburbs around Philadelphia and New York than the heavily Republican Sun Belt suburbs.

Past results: Bush edged Kerry here by two points. Obama took it in 2008 with 57 percent of the vote.

2. Pinellas County, Fla.     Population: 916,542     Largest city: St. Petersburg

The top-two counties are both part of Florida’s I-4 Corridor, which runs through the Daytona Beach, Orlando and Tampa areas. The I-4 Corridor is the most important region in this presidential election. In Pinellas County, St. Petersburg has some neighborhoods that are solidly Democratic, but most of the territory is split 50/50. Every precinct could make the difference between winning and losing.

Past results: Bush was in a virtual tie with Kerry here while Obama bested Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) 54-46.

1. Hillsborough County, Fla.     Population: 1,229,226     Largest city: Tampa

The most crucial county this fall is on the other side of Tampa Bay from Pinellas, the runner-up. Hillsborough County, which includes Tampa and its immediate suburbs, is the only county listed with more than one million residents. Still, it’s a fairly accurate small-scale version of America. It has a solidly Democratic central city that includes large African-American and Hispanic populations, and some outlying areas that are heavily Republican. The immediate suburbs are closely split. Whoever wins Hillsborough County in November is most likely the next occupant of the White House.

Past results: Bush won here with 53 percent while Obama finished a point better in 2008.

Chris Palko works as an assistant media analyst at Smart Media Group, a Republican political media buying agency in Alexandria, Va. He is a graduate of American University and George Washington University’s Graduate School of Political Management.

A version of this post was also published on Campaign & Election’s blog, Campaign Insider .

There are two types of campaign attack ads, Bill O’Reilly noted last week. Ads based on facts and ads based on ad hominem, which in Latin is short for pointing out the character flaws or actions of your opponent in an attempt to negate the truth of his argument. O’Reilly’s two-ad analysis sprung from columnist Charles Krauthammer stating that President Obama and his fellow Democrats are going to run campaigns based on race, class and gender. We are already seeing this occur. 

Take this article, which portrays the Romney campaign tagline, “Obama isn’t working” as though, in fact, it were a nasty racial stereotype about black men. Unfortunately for Romney, that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Democrats and their allies will likely continue ad hominem attacks on Romney and put their focus on what they’ve dubbed as the Republican war on women, immigrants and African Americans. Romney will need to have a nimble media strategy to deflect attention away from these character attacks. Here are three ways he can do that.

Host “Saturday Night Live.” Romney has been offered the host spot and is considering it, according to the New York Times. Other candidates have used the show to poke fun at their public images and Romney should seize the opportunity. There’s no question that the writers will target him throughout the campaign, so playing along on his own terms is worth considering. Still, in order for it to be a success, he needs to laughed with, not laughed at. Romney’s friends say he is a “barrel of laughs” and has a reputation for being a prankster. Revealing his lighter side could raise his likeability and put him up there with the president. Charisma gets votes, as we saw in 2008.

Disclose campaign donors. Romney’s camp won’t identify his major donors and is vulnerable to criticism for failing to do so. But this lack of transparency – the Obama camp, by comparison, has disclosed the identities of his bundlers — in Romney’s campaign could be turned into an advantage. He could increase anticipation and release the names of his financial backers when a real distraction is needed.

Put Ann in the spotlight. To most of the public, the first lady’s role is almost as important as the president’s. Moreover, candidates’ wives are naturally given a celebrity-type status that takes some of the focus off of the candidate. The Romney camp has many ways it could tout Ann, but it needs to start soon. In a recent Quinnipiac University poll, 64 percent of respondents didn’t know enough about her to form an opinion.