There are multiple types of swing voters, making them hard to target.

Juggling the various groups of swing voters is central to political success. In the 2010 midterms, Democrats had their weakest performance among moderate suburbanites in two decades, lost working-class whites and the Southern populists went Republican in places that had continual Democratic representation since Reconstruction. This year, the challenge for both parties is to appeal to these contradictory groups, all the while minimizing challenges on their flanks.

The fiscally conservative, socially moderate voter. According to the media, this is the only sort of swing voter that exists. A reporter who went to a top-ranked East Coast college thinks of how his banker, businessman, or lawyer friends from school are going to vote, and the “fiscally conservative, socially moderate” label gets trotted out. Does this type of voter exist? Yes. Do they warrant the dominant share of attention given to swing voters? No. They’re but one type. While they can be found in certain crucial areas like suburban Philadelphia and Northern Virginia, most live in solidly blue states. This type of voter has more impact on the congressional level.

The socially conservative, fiscally moderate voter. There are two streams of thought for this type of voter: the Northern white working class and the Southern populists. The working-class whites are located in the Northeast and Midwest, and are heavily Catholic. They often decide elections. The Southern populists are culturally conservative, but do not share the faith in free market economics their better off Southern cousins possess. Both groups are, by heritage, Democrats, but often feel they have to break ranks to defend their values. Republicans have had success winning over the Southern populists in the past decade — catering to these voters is partly why GOP performance has declined among suburban moderates — while the working-class whites were essential to Republican victories in 2010.

The far right and far left. The swing vote is usually thought to be in the middle of the electorate. Broadly speaking, this is true. But there are also voters at the edges of the electorate who are very open to supporting a third party or staying home altogether. Most famously, Ralph Nader stole enough far-left votes from Al Gore to swing the 2000 presidential election to George W. Bush. How do people with viewpoints similar to Noam Chomsky or Pat Buchanan translate their beliefs into practical politics? Some are content to exert a leftward or rightward pull on their affiliated mainstream party. This isn’t a large group of voters, but it’s a volatile group that’s often overlooked by political strategists.

Ron Paul supporters. They’re a disparate group and it’s hard to figure out whom these voters would support in a match up between Obama and a conventional Republican — if they would vote at all. This is a new swing-voting group, which is not part of the political center, and whose future political trajectory is unpredictable.

Chris Palko works as an assistant media analyst at Smart Media Group, a Republican political media buying agency in Alexandria, Va. He is a graduate of American University and George Washington University’s Graduate School of Political Management.

A version of this post was also published on Campaign and Elections blog, Campaign Insider

Advice Dwight Eisenhower might give today’s presidential candidates.

The year 1952 was a milestone for men, women and presidential campaigns. The New York Yankees beat the Brooklyn Dodgers in the World Series, microwave ovens became available for domestic use and presidential campaigns were broadcast on television for the first time. Presidential campaigns, like history, tend to repeat – so with that in mind here’s a thorough imagining of what advice President Dwight Eisenhower, aka Ike, might provide today based on his successful campaign strategies in 1952. 

Politics and Madison Avenue do mix.  Madison Avenue executive Rosser Reeves came up with the idea to advertise using 20-second spots and airing them before and after shows such as “I Love Lucy,” knowing they would reach a larger audience at less cost. This is the same guy who fathered the M&M’s campaign, “melts in your mouth, not in your hands.” In the early 1950s, the only other ads airing on TV were for household brands like Ivory Soap and Palmolive. Today, media buyers everywhere are still using the same strategy — positioning ads in the most effective and efficient TV environments.

Be a Pioneer.  Ike’s opponent, Adlai Stevenson, thought Ike was insulting American’s intelligence with his ads. Stevenson made two predictions that didn’t turn out to be true. 1) Americans would be outraged and shocked, and 2) that campaign ads would eventually have actors playing the candidates. Those predictions worked out pretty well for Ike. It’s hard to believe that new and innovative strategies remain for today’s candidates, but undoubtedly there will be campaign pioneers this election.

 Do whatever it takes to enhance your image.  The spots for Ike’s campaign consisted of Ike answering questions submitted from ordinary citizens. The citizens were photographed on the street outside of Radio City Hall in New York City and the shots were taken from an upward angle so it would appear as they were gazing up at a hero. These crafty tactics may not work today but candidates like Newt Gingrich have the right idea of utilizing their fine oral skills to boost their image.

 You don’t have to bash your opponent to win. It’s been reported that Ike never mentioned his Stevenson’s name in any of his spots. This tip probably comes too late for Mitt Romney and Gingrich, whose Super PACs have already spent millions on attack ads. 

Your voting history doesn’t count. It’s been reported that Ike never voted before the 1952 presidential election. These days, voting records are usually taken into account by voters. So, for your reference, here is a link to a blog that focuses on the 2012 GOP candidate’s voting records and viewpoints.  http://www.theminorityreportblog.com/2011/09/02/2012-presidential-candidates-%E2%80%93-voting-records-viewpoints-on-free-trade/      

 Show off your spouse. The 1952 election was the first election to see spouses behind the candidates. For the first time, both spouses attended events, appeared on buttons together and went from ordinary status to celebrity status in a very short time. Today, first lady hopefuls are immediately thrown into the spotlight and the issues they are advocating, their values, image and style are watched with hawk-like intensity. Here’s an example of how the media is already critiquing the potential first ladies’ fashion.  http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/12/gop-candidates-wives_n_1202483.html

 Use era-relevant idioms. Families made up of suit-and-tie husbands and housewives were the theme of Ike’s era. To connect with Americans, he used phrases like, “Washington would be cleaned out as a woman cleans house” and “if housewives could balance a household budget, so could the government”. My advice to the 2012 candidates, choose your idioms wisely. How many times did we hear about President Obama saying his bowling skills were “like Special Olympics”? In the media’s defense, that was pretty bad. 

Use catchy slogans.

 A version of this post was also published on Campaigns and Elections blog, Campaign Insider http://www.campaignsandelections.com/campaign-insider/293622/be-like-ike.thtml.