Some areas to watch when the primary season kicks off next month

After months of campaigning and seemingly endless debates, we’re edging closer to having actual, tangible results from all the candidates’ efforts. Next month features four contests: the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 3, the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 10, the South Carolina primary on Jan. 21 and the Florida preference primary on Jan. 31.

What’s striking about this year’s calendar is that with the exception of a few caucuses, there is a month gap between the Florida vote and the next significant primaries in Arizona and Michigan. A strong start is essential for winning the nomination, but staying in contention is more important than having a small delegate lead at the end of January. With that in mind, here are some key areas to watch in the first four states.

Iowa: Polk County. In 2008, Mike Huckabee earned close to 3,000 of his 10,000-vote victory margin from Polk County. While he ran strong in the less densely populated counties in the southern part of the state, he actually didn’t run as strongly as expected in western Iowa, which was presumed to be his base in the state. Mitt Romney won the eastern part of the state, counties on the Missouri River, and exurban Republican hotbed Dallas County. But it was an urban and suburban electorate in large towns and small cities in the middle of the state — over 20 percent of all the 2008 Iowa caucus goers were from Polk County — that gave Huckabee the support needed to win.

This cycle, there is no candidate like Huckabee that unifies the Christian conservative vote. If that voting stream is split, then the higher populated areas in the state will decide who wins. Also, considering the increased interest in this nomination process compared to 2008, there could be a major increase in caucus participation, and this would likely further increase the importance of the more developed areas in the state.

New Hampshire: Nashua. This city of approximately 85,000 is home to one in every 15 of New Hampshire’s residents. It’s a swing city in general elections, and is the home of ex-Sen. Judd Gregg (R), who is backing Romney, and current Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R).  In 2008, Romney was able to win Nashua, but by only a small margin, which was not sufficient to offset Sen. John McCain’s (R-Ariz.) support in more northern parts of the state.

Romney must run stronger in Nashua this time around to meet his expectations. The surrounding towns on and near the Massachusetts state line are his base. Fortunately for him, they are the most Republican and largest towns in New Hampshire, and if he runs strongly in them, he’ll win the primary. Rivals looking for an upset need to focus on repeating McCain’s strategy of tying these locations and winning in the rest of the state.

South Carolina: Richland County. The South Carolina Republican electorate is the definition of conservative, but there is a consistent internal split between the Lowcountry, with a large military and retiree population, and the Upcountry, with a religious accent to its conservatism.

This split is magnified in primaries. In 2008 McCain was the candidate of the Lowcountry and Huckabee was the candidate of the Upcountry. McCain won his narrow victory in the Columbia area, which is in the center of the state and relatively balanced between the two regions. Overall, McCain won Richland County, which contains the majority of the Columbia metro area, by nearly 5,000 votes. This accounted for one-third of his victory margin in the state.

Florida: The I-4 Corridor. In 2008, propelled by the endorsement of then-Gov. Charlie Crist, McCain was able to win what turned out to be the decisive contest in the battle for the GOP nomination. The Arizona Republican very narrowly beat Romney in the Orlando area while he won the Tampa area (Crist’s base) by a solid 7-8 point margin. This was the key to offsetting Romney’s strong performance in the Jacksonville and southwest Florida areas. We’ll know in a few short weeks whether one of the 2012 candidates can replicate McCain’s path to the nod.

Chris Palko works as an assistant media analyst at Smart Media Group, a Republican political media buying agency in Alexandria, Va. He is a graduate of American University and George Washington University’s Graduate School of Political Management.

A version of this post was also published on Campaigns & Elections blog, Campaign Insider

Oregon’s upcoming special election is the GOP’s best chance in decades of picking up the 1^st House district. But the party’s nominee must win Washington County, a crucial battleground that’s favored Democrats. The 1st district, formerly represented by disgraced Democrat David Wu, has not had a Republican congressman since the Watergate election of 1974. While history has shown the race is a quixotic challenge for any Republican, some results from recent specials in New York have given the party hope of winning a hugely symbolic victory here. 

The district has a partisan voting index of D+8, which makes it two points more Democratic than the most Democratic seat a Republican currently holds, Illinois Rep. Bob Dold’s seat, and three points more Democratic than former Rep. Anthony Weiner’s old district in New York, which Democrats lost after he resigned in disgrace.

National Democrats have taken seriously the vote slated for Jan. 31. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has put $744,000 on Portland broadcast TV through Election Day. The buy may have been prompted by a realization that there has been a recent trend toward punishing the party of a disgraced member in a special election — think Weiner’s seat going to now-Rep. Bob Turner (R) or former Rep. Chris Lee’s (R) seat going to Democrat Kathy Hochul.

But it isn’t just recent trends that will dictate the outcome of the Oregon special. Here’s how geography could factor into the race, which pits former state Sen. Suzanne Bonamici (D) against Republican businessman Rob Cornilles.

The core of the district is Washington County, the largest suburban county in the Portland area. Bonamici and Cornilles live in Washington County, and it accounts for two-thirds of the district’s population. Last time around, Cornilles earned 45 percent here on his way to an impressive showing against Wu. Meanwhile, 2010 Republican gubernatorial candidate (and former Portland Trail Blazer) Chris Dudley lost the county by 1.5 points — the same margin by which he lost the state. A Republican hasn’t carried Washington County in an election of consequence since then-Sen. Gordon Smith won it in a largely uncontested reelection campaign in 2002. While the county leans Democratic, it’s not solid blue and it has the potential for a good Republican candidate to carry it.

Still, Cornilles would have a much better chance of winning this district if 10 percent of it didn’t extend into Multnomah County, where Portland is located. The city likely has more microbreweries than Republicans, and in their 2010 contest, Wu got 78 percent of the vote in the Multnomah County portion of the district. Half of Wu’s margin of victory came in this small part of the district. The inclusion of such an overwhelming Democratic area is a major barrier to a Republican victory.

The GOP base in the district is Yamhill County, which is mostly rural and dotted with small towns. It’s the only county Cornilles won last cycle, but unfortunately for him it’s only 12 percent of the district. The district also includes Clatsop and Columbia Counties, which combined account for about 10 percent of the population, and are politically marginal. 

To win, Cornilles has to win Washington County outright. Outright victory is necessary because he cannot allow Bonamici to add to the margin she will earn from Portland. He also must bank on strong support in the other counties to offset the Democratic vote margin in Portland.

Cornilles could take some comfort from the experience of Turner.  He ran a strong but unsuccessful challenge to Weiner in 2010, and when Weiner resigned his seat, Turner was able to build on that experience and win an upset victory. But Cornilles has to hope that Bonamici runs an error prone campaign like David Weprin did. So far, there is little evidence that Bonamici is as inept a candidate as Weprin.

A version of this post was published on Campaigns and Elections blog, Campaign Insider