Archive for November, 2011

The Ins and Outs of Spanish Language Media

Wednesday, November 30th, 2011

A significant minority of the Hispanic community uses Spanish language media.  Spanish language media is no longer confined to cities close to the Mexican border; there are now affiliates of Spanish broadcasters in such middle American cities as Wichita and Kansas City.  Thirty-five percent of respondents to the Univision Latino Votes Survey took the survey in Spanish.  Of the three in the middle political groups surveyed (Democratic Leaners, Swing, and Republican Leaners), 30% are Spanish dominant (meaning those whose majority of television consumption is in Spanish).

Who consumes Spanish language media: Spanish language consumption is heavily determined by education level.  Of the 40 percent of all respondents with a High School diploma or less, 44% are Spanish dominant.  But only 12 percent of those with some college and 11 percent of college graduates are Spanish dominant.  Once a respondent steps foot on a college campus, their likelihood of viewing Spanish language television falls by 73 percent.

Republicans are less likely to consume Spanish media.  Twenty percent of Republicans are Spanish dominant.  This is less than for either Democrats or Independents, both of whose level of Spanish dominant individuals is 28-29%.  In spite of that, self-identified conservatives are more likely to be Spanish dominant.  Thirty-two percent of self-described conservatives are Spanish dominant, compared to 25% of moderates, and 20% of liberals.  Clearly, there is some room for improvement for Republicans among the Spanish language audience. 

Women are more likely to watch Spanish language media.  Thirty percent report being Spanish dominant.  That is somewhat larger than the 22 percent of men who are Spanish dominant. The geographic subsample group most likely to be Spanish dominant was those who were from Florida.

The small proportion of Protestants is much less likely to watch Spanish language television than their Catholic counterparts.  Only 18 percent of Protestants are Spanish dominant, compared to 31 percent of Catholics.  Self described “Observant Catholics” (30 percent of all respondents) are much more Spanish dominant (38%) than self described “Non-Observant Catholics” (34 percent of all respondents), of whom only 25 percent are Spanish dominant.  If Republicans are interested in targeting the Hispanics who are socially conservative, then Spanish language TV has to be part of that strategy.

Effects on political attitudes: As media consumption becomes more English-heavy, support for immigration restriction increases.  Eleven percent of Spanish only viewers support making it harder for immigrants to come to US, compared to 15% for Spanish majority viewers, 24% for English majority viewers, and 28% for English only viewers.

Twenty-three percent of Spanish only viewers consider immigration their top issue, compared to 17 percent of Spanish majority viewers, 8 percent of English majority viewers, and a mere 4 percent of English only viewers.  This could indicate that the Spanish language media is heavily fixated on immigration issues.  The precise opposite occurs with social issues.  Only 8 percent of Spanish only respondents named social issues their top priority.  This increases to 10% of Spanish majority viewers, 15% of English majority viewers, and 16% of English only viewers.  It could also be the case that Spanish language media does not cover culture war issues to the extent that Anglo outlets do.

Effects on political partisanship: When asked about how committed Democrats were to immigration reform, the amount who answered “committed” stayed between 41-42 percent regardless of how much or little Spanish language media consumed.  What did change noticeably was the amount who thought Democrats were exploiting the immigration issue to win votes.  Thirty-nine percent of Spanish only voters believed this, compared to 45 percent of Spanish majority viewers, 49 percent of English majority viewers, and 50 percent of English only viewers.  Increasing exposure to English language media correlates with less trust in the Democratic Party.

Republican Base voters stand out in their distance from Spanish language media.  The other four voter segments (including Republican Leaners) have somewhere between 26-33% of respondents who are Spanish language dominant.  Republican Base voters are only nine percent Spanish dominant.  A microscopic one percent of Republican Base voters are Spanish only viewers.  They are the one voting segment that is out of reach of Spanish language media.

Can Republicans win the Hispanic vote?

Thursday, November 17th, 2011

On Immigration, tone may trump substance

Coverage of Hispanic politics in the Anglo media often creates the impression that the dominant political issue among Spanish-speaking Americans is immigration. If you see a Latino face on TV arguing about politics, most likely he was invited on to talk about immigration. The media’s focus influences strategists from both political parties who routinely view the key to winning Hispanic voters as championing some form of immigration reform. But is immigration really the main issue of concern for Hispanics?

Not by a long shot. The No.1 issue that Hispanic voters care about is education. That’s according to an extensive poll of likely Hispanic voters conducted by the Tarrance Group and the Mellman Group for Univision. The findings of the Univision Latino Voters Survey suggest that Republicans do have an image problem among most Hispanic voters, but it is not a crushing deficit and there is room for improvement.

Democrats, meanwhile, are more trusted overall, although they are far from beloved. In many respects, the immigration issue is a proxy for “respecting the Hispanic community.” If there are image problems for Republicans among Hispanics, it has more to do with a perceived lack of respect than the details of an immigration policy. Moreover, Republican politicians could make inroads with Hispanic voters if they indicate that they respect the community, and refrain from demonizing immigrants.

In the fall survey, which drew 1,500 participants from California, Texas, Florida, and the Southwest, the top-rated concern among all respondents was “our kids are not getting the quality education they need.”  The education issue reached across ideological boundaries — 36 percent of Republicans, 36 percent of Democrats and 37 percent of swing voters named it as a top concern.

Immigration wasn’t even second on the list of concerns — two spending issues ranked below education. The second-rated concern: cuts to Medicare, which was a top concern for 35 percent of respondents.  At the same time, respondents were also concerned about government spending. A third named it as a top concern.

Government spending – an issue where the GOP traditionally holds an edge — was even more a concern among Hispanic swing voters. Forty-two percent named it as a top concern, and the numbers were even higher among respondents from Texas and the Southwest – areas where Republicans picked up House seats in 2010.

The other issue that consistently ranked near the top was jobs — 33 percent of respondents ranked it as one of their top concerns. Everyone is concerned with having good jobs, but this is particularly a concern in the Southwest, where 39 percent of swing voters expressed concern over finding employment.

So which party has the edge with Hispanic voters going into 2012? Some observers believe the GOP could make inroads next year, in part, because Hispanics are assumed to be socially conservative and therefore naturally Republican. If the GOP favored immigration reform, the conventional wisdom goes, Hispanics would vote Republican en masse.

Here too the conventional wisdom is flawed.  The 5th ranked concern among all surveyed was “family values are in decline.”  While this would sound like evidence of innate social conservatism, it’s a rather vague statement.  Who’s for weakening families after all?  A more concrete issue, “there are too many abortions in the US,” ranks 17th out of 21 issues, with 17 percent rating it as a concern. Meanwhile, government recognition of gay marriages ranked near the bottom, with only 15 percent ranking it as a concern.  These are clearly not the prime motivators of Hispanic voting behavior.

One issue that Hispanics in the aggregate give the edge to Republicans on is national security. Swing voters also give Republicans the edge on abortion and keeping down government spending. Issues related to immigration and “respecting the Hispanic community” is where Hispanics give Democrats the widest advantage over Republicans.

In total, 21 issues were provided to respondents in this survey, five of which relate to immigration. The top immigration-related concern among all voters connects to the recent crackdowns in some GOP-led states. “More states are passing anti-Latino immigration laws like Arizona’s,” ranked 10th.  That’s right, 10th.  The other four came in at 14th, 15th, 16th and 19th.  And one of these concerns was “illegal immigration is out of control,” which 17 percent said was one of their top concerns. Swing voters showed even less interest in immigration issues.

A version of this blog post was published on Campaigns and Elections blog, Campaign Insider

$5.8 Million Spent in VA State Senate Elections

Tuesday, November 8th, 2011

Both parties in Virginia have poured millions of dollars into television and radio advertising in the fight to control the state Senate, but some of that cash may have been wasted because of the structure of the Commonwealth’s legislative districts.

State senate candidates and committees from both parties have spent a grand total of $5.8 million in Virginia on broadcast, cable and radio advertising. Republicans hold the edge, having spent $3 million on advertising compared to $2.7 million for Democrats.

Democrats currently hold a four-seat majority in the state Senate, but their grip on power is tenuous given Virginia’s political climate. Moreover, they’ve had to defend districts where in past cycles the GOP didn’t even field a candidate. This year, the battle to control the state Senate been fought primarily in thirteen districts, which have been blanketed with ads.

Unfortunately for the candidates, the Virginia Legislature paid no attention to the geography of media markets when it drew up the legislative districts. The result is uniquely shaped boundaries that can spill-in and spill-out of several media markets at a time, making it difficult to efficiently reach the right voters through mass media.

Take the Roanoke media market, where candidates and issue groups together have spent $1.9 million. The map below illustrates how districts 20, 21, 22 and 38 spill-in and spill-out of the city’s TV market. In the case of districts 38 and 22, only voters from certain counties fall into the Roanoke market. Other voters who reside outside of the market are not exposed to the campaigns’ Roanoke advertising at all.

In districts where there is significant market spill-in and spill-out, campaigns must determine if a worthwhile percentage of their targeted voters will actually receive exposure to their broadcast ads.

For example, district 38 falls into three broadcast markets: Bluefield-Beckley, Roanoke and Tri-Cities. As the state’s biggest spender, state Sen. Phillip Puckett (D) — who didn’t face an opponent in 2007 — has placed over a half a million dollars on ads in these markets on broadcast and cable. Puckett has placed $545,000 on broadcast in all three markets and $26,000 on cable in Bluefield-Beckley only.

Adam Light, Puckett’s Republican challenger, has spent over $380,000 on advertising in Bluefield-Beckley, Roanoke and Tri-Cities. Light has placed $323,000 on broadcast, $53,000 on cable and $7,000 on radio. He has received additional $38,000 in advertising support from the Republican Party of Virginia on cable and radio.

This map shows district 38 and the counties that fall into each broadcast TV market.

To put this spending into context, here is a map of the district and each TV market to their full extent.

Despite his massive outlay, Puckett is in danger of losing his seat after 13 years in office. If he’s defeated on Tuesday, questions should be asked about the effectiveness of his advertising strategy.

As an alternative to the large scope of broadcast, advertising on cable TV allows candidates to more precisely target the voters within their districts. Instead of blanketing a whole media market with advertisements, campaigns can pick and choose which cable systems cover their district. The drawback to advertising on cable, however, is that the audience is a lot smaller.

Total Spend by District
At least thirteen state senate districts have been blanketed with ads: VA SD-01, VA SD-06, VA SD-09, VA SD-17, VA SD-20, VA SD-21, VA SD-22, VA SD-29, VA SD-36, VA SD-37, VA SD-38, VA SD-39 and VA SD-40.

Total Spend by Candidate

Total Spend by Market
Where in Virginia have these campaign dollars been spent? Candidates and issue groups together have spent $1.9 million in Roanoke, $1.6 million in Washington, DC, $890k in Norfolk, $498k in Tri-Cities, $413k in Richmond, $377k in Charlottesville and $135k in Bluefield-Beckley.

A version of this blog post was published on Campaigns and Elections blog, Campaign Insider