After going through the close, contested states in the past three segments, I now want to use the data in those installments to determine which are going to be the most important states in 2012.  Some of the states in past postings will not determine who the next President will be.  Of the 19 states that I went over, 12 should be true swing states that could be won by either President Obama or his Republican opponent.  Two states profiled should be solidly Republican, and five others should stay in the Obama column.

I have grouped the states into a few tiers.  It is likely that all the states in each tier would be won by the same candidate.  The states are listed in order, starting with the safest Republican state and ending with the most secure Democratic state.  The baseline Republican Electoral College total without any states below would be 170, exactly 100 short of the 270 electoral votes required for victory.

Almost Certain GOP states: These are the two states that are almost certainly in the Republican column in 2012.  Obama would need to outdo his 2008 performance to win these.

Indiana: Obama’s shock victory here looks to be a one time fluke, partly based on Chicago’s proximity to the state, and McCain’s opposition to farm subsidies led to 15-20 point Republican declines in some northern farm counties.  Last year’s midterms were a return to the typical Republican proclivities of the state.  Obama still will run better than a typical Democrat in a state next door to his, but Indiana won’t be competitive unless the election is already over before Election Day.

Missouri: This is the only state on this list that John McCain won.  There is no reason to think it will flip in 2012.  If anything, Missouri has trended to the right in the intervening three years.  Roy Blunt, from the state’s top Republican family, easily beat Robin Carnahan, of the state’s top Democratic family.  Every House member outside St. Louis and Kansas City is likely to be a Republican after redistricting.  Missouri is on the verge of falling out of swing state status.

Both of these states would only need a national Republican popular vote percentage of about 45 percent to be won by the GOP nominee.  Even McCain received 46.5% of the two-party vote.  These states shouldn’t be hard for whoever the Republican candidate will be to win.  Adding these states to the Republican nominee would get the electoral vote total to 191.

Mandatory GOP States: The next four states are the beginning of the twelve true swing states.  For a Republican to win, they will almost assuredly need all four of these states.

New Hampshire: Are you surprised that New Hampshire is this early in the order?  You’re not wrong for thinking so.  Even in 2004, Bush couldn’t win New Hampshire.  There are seven states below it that Bush was able to win.  What puts it this high is that it has swung hard to the right in the age of Obama.  It may be easier for a small state to move so quickly.  Accordingly, only Rhode Island had a greater decline in Democratic Party identification since early 2009.  Obama has been markedly more unpopular here than even the overall Democratic Party brand.  Obama’s approval ratings average in the first half of 2011 are at the same level as Texas and Tennessee.  Republicans won back both House seats against incumbent Democrats and won an open Senate race by nearly twenty points.  At this rate, a Republican would only need approximately 46 percent nationally to win here.

North Carolina: The first in a series of South Atlantic states, North Carolina was also a surprise Obama victory in 2008.  His one point victory in a previously strong Republican state was the textbook example of how Obama was able to expand the electorate by generating record turnout and margins from minorities and young people.  No Democrat could have won North Carolina without Obama’s passionate connection to the large black and university communities in the state.  Without “surge voting”, the state reverted to its pre-2008 political layout in 2010.  While it is somewhat more Democratic than it was a decade ago, it will require a repeat of 2008 for Obama to win it next year.

Virginia: Obama’s 2008 victory in the Old Dominion was the culmination of a standout decade for Virginia Democrats.  It was also the high tide of that trend, and ever since Election Day 2008, Democrats in Virginia have suffered numerous defeats from the local level all the way to the Governor’s House.  While it is unlikely that Republicans will be able to repeat the smashing victories they won in 2009, a more modest win on the scale of the 2010 two-party Congressional vote, where Republicans ran three points ahead of a strong national Republican showing would still dramatically hurt Obama’s reelection prospects.

Florida: Florida might be the archetypical swing state in the general public’s imagination.  It remains the largest seriously contested state at the presidential level.  But it has not been in the center of the national political balance since 2000.  Bush had a somewhat under-the-radar relatively large victory in 2004.  Even in 2008, Obama couldn’t do better than 51 percent—and that was aided by a housing bubble that hit Florida particularly hard.  Republicans had about the best election cycle imaginable in 2010, winning every statewide election, and an astounding 62 percent of the two-party Congressional vote.  Republicans should not expect that dominant of a showing in 2012.  But a state that narrowly went for Obama has distanced itself from its 2008 vote.

If Republicans were to win all four of these states, which are a virtual requirement for victory, they would have 252 electoral votes, only 18 short of victory.  It would only require a Republican national popular vote percentage of roughly 46-47% to win these states.  Due to the dynamics of the next few states below, Obama almost certainly has to win one of the three South Atlantic states.  Losing Florida would particularly be a heavy blow to his reelection hopes.

The Deciding State: The value of New Hampshire’s shift to the right can be observed here.  This is because the state that would get Republicans to 270 electoral votes would be…

Ohio: This has been the lynchpin of Republican electoral strategy for years.  A Republican has never been elected President without winning Ohio.  There is every reason to believe this is true for 2012 as well.  By almost every measure available, Ohio is two points more Republican than the national average.  Obama won 51 percent here in 2008, two points behind the 53 percent he earned nationally.  The two-party Congressional vote in 2010 was 56-44 Republican, precisely two points more Republican than the national average.  Gallup’s average approval rating for Obama for the first half of 2011 has Ohio two points below the national average.  Consequentially, we would expect it to flip to the Republican candidate if they were to earn 48 percent of the national popular vote.

New Hampshire becoming a Republican leaning swing state is so valuable, because adding it to the list of states above puts a Republican 18 electoral votes short of victory.  Guess how many electoral votes Ohio has?  Eighteen exactly.  Thanks to the effects of reapportionment and the shift in New Hampshire, a Republican can win without any further states.  Of course, this provides no margin of error, so a comprehensive Republican strategy will contest the states immediately below Ohio as if they are the determining states.  This is also why Obama needs to pick off a South Atlantic state.

Next time, I will go through the states that are truly in the middle, and the states where a successful Republican could put in play.

Statewide Political Shifts: Part Three

Generally, the western states were a source of Republican strength in the 20^th Century.  A shift that began even while FDR was still in the White House drove the Rocky Mountain states to become among the most reliably Republican states in the country.  The Pacific coast states were swing states, and California, the biggest electoral prize of all, produced two presidents.  In recent times, the picture has become more complicated.  Some Mountain states, like Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming are among the most Republican states in the nation.  California has become the flagship Democratic state.  The Pacific Northwest has trended left.  And some Mountain states are now some of the hottest contested states every election cycle.

To figure out the most competitive states in the West in 2012, I will continue to look at the 2008 Presidential vote, the Congressional two-party vote (removing all third parties) and relevant statewide races in 2010, comparing state level Obama approval ratings with his national average for the first six months of 2011 (measured by Gallup), and the decline in Democratic Party identification, also measured by Gallup.  The baseline for the poll is 47 percent approval, which is somewhat higher than Obama’s current approval ratings.

Looking at these states more in depth:

Colorado: In the past half decade, few states have been better breeding grounds of success for Democrats than Colorado.  A state that Bob Dole was able to carry, Colorado went from being a Republican leaning swing state to giving strong backing to Democrats in 2006 and 2008.  Obama did well here, and added it to his list of Bush 2004 pickups.  Colorado had perhaps the most disappointing showing for Republicans in 2010.  A disastrous Republican Governor primary was marred by the leading contender being a plagiarist and the fringe nominee being so out of his depth that Tom Tancredo got 37 percent on a third party bid.  This weighed down Republicans in the Senate race, which Democrats won by two points.  In spite of this mismanagement, Republican won the two-party Congressional vote by five points.  With some better luck, it could have been a good Republican year here also.  Obama is running three points behind his national approval rating.  Colorado is shaping up to be a hotly contested state, but it is not as Democratic as its current representation would indicate.

Nevada: Nevada is another traditional Republican state that has trended Democratic in the past half decade.  Bush was able to win the state in both 2000 and 2004.  As in other Mountain West states, Obama showed strength, receiving 55 percent here.  2010 was a mixed bag for both parties.  Republican Brian Sandoval won the Governorship over Harry Reid’s son rather easily.  Republicans regained the suburban Las Vegas seat they lost in 2008 and won the two-party Congressional vote 53-47.  But the most memorable Nevada election in 2010 was the US Senate race, where a vulnerable Harry Reid was able to hold off Sharron Angle.  Considering the results in the other races, there is good reason to think a different Republican would have won.  Like Colorado, Obama is running three points behind his national approval average here.  The Democratic Party ID decline is 5 points, somewhat less than the national average, however.  Nevada and Colorado seem like a package deal.  It seems likely that either Obama or his Republican opponent will win both or lose both.

New Mexico: On a broad level, New Mexico is a bellwether state.  It was one of a few states that voted for George W. Bush once; he barely lost in 2000 and barely won in 2004.  While its overall partisan balance is close to the national average, its hard to say New Mexico is typical of anywhere.  It has one of the largest American Indian populations.  It is the most Hispanic state in America, but most are long settled in America, some with families who arrived before the signing of the Declaration of Independence.  2008 was a complete Democratic sweep.  Besides an easy Obama victory, Democrats came out of the election controlling the Governorship, both Senate seats, and all three House seats.  This monopoly was broken in 2010.  Republicans won back the Governorship and a House seat.  This was not as substantial a victory as Republicans experienced in other states; Democrats still won the two-party Congressional vote by three points.  Obama is one point more unpopular here than his national average, but the Democratic decline is only three points, one of the smallest declines in the nation.  It could very well be the case that Obama is of a magnitude more unpopular than the Democratic Party itself.

Oregon: George W. Bush came within four points of winning Oregon in 2004.  Since then, little has gone right for Republicans.  Gordon Smith lost his Senate seat in 2006, and Obama won 57% of the vote in 2008.  Some states in 2010, like Wisconsin and Michigan, reversed years of Democratic domination.  That didn’t happen in Oregon.  Republicans failed to pick up a single House seat.  An appealing Governor candidate, former Portland Trail Blazer Chris Dudley, was neck and neck in the polls, but failed to win.  Democrats still won the two-party Congressional vote by five points.  It is almost as if the political environment in Oregon didn’t change from 2008.  The Republican wave so apparent across the country petered out by the time it hit the Pacific.  While Obama is running slightly behind his national average here, the Democratic Party decline is on the lower side.  Oregon relative to the rest of the nation has shifted more Democratic in the past decade, and would now be harder to win for a Republican than many large industrial Midwestern states.

Washington: There have been a series of very, very close statewide elections in the past decade that Democrats have pulled out in recounts.  In 2004, the Governor contest between Christine Gregoire and Dino Rossi had a razor thin margin.  Rossi’s supporters accused Gregoire’s campaign of vote fraud after she went ahead of Rossi in the recount.  In 2008, a rematch between Gregoire and Rossi also was closely decided, but Gregoire won with a slightly larger margin this time.  After a major Democratic victory across the board in 2008, Rossi thought the third time would be the charm, this time challenging Senator Patty Murray.  Once again, Rossi came up short, this time by five points.  Republicans did win one formerly Democratic House seat, but the two-party Congressional vote was a 53-47 Democratic win.  Obama is three points more popular here than the national average, and the Democratic decline of 5.6 points is relatively small, though more than neighboring Oregon.  Obama has been more successful at bringing the Pacific Northwest into his coalition than nearly any other region of the country.  It will be very tough for a Republican to win Washington in 2012.

Colorado and Nevada are true swing states that will likely mirror the national popular vote.  New Mexico is likely two or three points more Democratic than the national average, though definitely still in play.  And the Pacific Northwest states are more Democratic relative to the rest of the country than they’ve ever been.  It would take a double digit Republican victory to win them over.