Three candidates vying for the NY-26 congressional seat have launched advertising campaigns after Rep. Chris Lee resigned in February. With the election approaching on May 24th, candidates have booked air time on both broadcast television and cable.

Independent candidate Jack Davis has booked over $1 million on Buffalo and Rochester broadcast and cable for seven weeks, 4/8-5/24. He placed $890k of the total sum on broadcast in Buffalo (about 700 points a week) and Rochester (about 650 points a week). Davis placed $115k of the total sum on cable in Buffalo, Elmira, and Rochester on the networks ANE, CNN, DISC, ESPN, FOOD, FXNC, HGTV, HIST, LIFE, TNT, and YES.

Republican candidate Jane Corwin has booked $940k so far on Buffalo and Rochester broadcast and cable for seven weeks, 3/15-5/2. She placed $870k of the total sum on broadcast in Buffalo (about 850 points a week) and Rochester (about 850 points a week). Corwin placed $32k of the total sum on cable in Buffalo and Rochester on the networks CNN, ESPN, FXNC, MNBC, and YNN.

Democratic candidate Kathy Hochul has booked $333k on Buffalo and Rochester broadcast for three weeks, 3/29-4/18. Hochul is getting about 350-450 points a week in Buffalo, and 450-650 points a week in Rochester.

In March 2011, the U.S. Census Bureau published the 2010 census brief detailing the nation’s population distribution and change.  One of the ways the U.S. Census Bureau reports changes in population is in geographic areas called metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas.  How do population changes in these metropolitan areas stack up against trends in Nielsen’s Designated Market Areas (DMAs) for broadcast television?

Ten Most Populous Metro Areas

Not surprisingly, the top ten most populous metropolitan statistical areas from the 2010 Census closely match up with Nielsen’s top ten highest ranked markets for television households.

Out of the ten most populous metro areas, the three fastest-growing metro areas were also the only three DMAs to advance in the ranks of Nielsen’s top ten.  Houston (which grew in population by 26.1%) broke into the top ten DMAs in 2005; Atlanta (which grew in population by 24%) started at tenth place in 2000 and reached eighth place by 2007; and Dallas (which grew in population by 23.4%) jumped from seventh place to fifth place between 2005 and 2007.

Ten Fastest-Growing Metro Areas

Additionally, this year’s census identified ten of the fastest-growing metropolitan statistical areas from 2000-2010.  What DMAs do these metro areas fall into, and how have these markets changed over the past ten years?

We matched up the ten fastest-growing metro areas identified by the census with the corresponding DMAs they fall into.  Each of these DMAs experienced a two-to-fourteen point raise in their rankings on Nielsen’s top TV HH DMA list.

Palm Coast, FL experienced a 92% population growth rate, making it the fasting-growing metropolitan statistical area from 2000-2010.  Palm Coast falls into Nielsen’s Orlando DMA, which rose from 21 to 19 in DMA rank over the past decade.

The U.S. Census Bureau reports population growth by metro area, but Nielsen’s rankings are based off of how many television households are in each market.  The top ten most populous metropolitan statistical areas clearly correlate with the top ten DMAs.  But which DMAs climbed the Nielsen rankings as markets gained more television households over the past ten years?

Of the ten fastest-growing metropolitan statistical areas found on the census, four of these markets also make Nielsen’s top twelve fastest-growing DMAs; Ft. Myers (jumped 16 ranks), Austin (jumped 14 ranks), Bend (jumped 11 ranks) and Las Vegas (jumped nine ranks).

Counties which experienced a decline in population were usually centered in or around large metropolitan areas as well, the U.S. Census Bureau reported.  Markets which dropped in rank also reflect this population change.

Sources:

Mackun, Paul and Steven Wilson.  “Population Distribution and Change: 2000 to 2010.” U.S. Department of Commerce, Economics and Statistics Administration (2011) <http://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-01.pdf>

“Local Television Market Universe Estimates.”  The Nielsen Company (2011)