Archive for August, 2010

You Never Even Call Me by My Name

Thursday, August 12th, 2010

Texans like to say “Don’t mess with Texas”. It seems like the DGA is finally listening. In late 2009, Houston Mayor Bill White announced his candidacy for governor, and was hailed as one of the few great recruits of the 2010 election cycle by the Democratic Party. In fact, the introduction of Bill White into the race led people to consider the race a toss-up, and a clear pick-up opportunity for the Democrats going into the 2012 re-apportionment. Smart Media Group we are beginning to wonder if the Democratic Governor’s Association disagrees.
Since the 2010 cycle officially began, the DGA has pumped over $1.3 million dollars into propping up incumbent Governor Pat Quinn (who has stayed relatively silent in the broadcast war). They have run negative ad after negative ad–thrashing Republican Nominee Bill Brady throughout the month of July and into August. The polling results have actually shown Bill Brady gaining ground, as the DGA continues to throw money into a race that seems to get worse by the day.

Meanwhile, Bill White has been financing a significant broadcast campaign since May of 2010, and has held Rick Perry to 47.4% of the vote according to the Pollster Average. Furthermore, while keeping the Longest Serving governor of TX under 50% Bill White has yet to enter the biggest markets in Texas. All of this leads us to start wondering if the DGA knows something that we don and since they haven’t spent a dime (or even requested rates!!!!) do they think that Bill White’s ship is sunk? Or maybe, they just forgot his name?

Is Someone Getting a Little Defensive?

Friday, August 6th, 2010

While the best offense may be a good Defense in football, that’s not necessarily the case with the 2010 Congressional Elections. Over the last few weeks, the DCCC has been placing buys across the country for the weeks leading up to the mid-term elections. Approximately $28 million dollars will be spent, fixing the DCCC to around forty markets in the country. Cleveland, Tampa, Miami, Chicago, Columbus, Cincinnati, New York, Buffalo, Burlington, Syracuse, Watertown…..the list goes on. While our earlier blog post showed that it’s hard to tell who exactly is being targeted, we can tell quite a few things from the markets that the DCCC is buying. They are scared. This is evident by the fact that they are investing heavily in swing districts that have a large number of Democratic incumbents. Taking a closer look at these markets we see something pretty interesting. In the New York markets, for example, we see that the Democrats will be buying time in NH-02, NY-23, NY-25, NY-20. As we head south we see this pattern continues. The DCCC has invested over $750k in the Miami broadcast market. While there are a number of districts in this race, we can find only two races that are “in play” according to CQ Politics. These districts include FL-23 with Democrat incumbent Ron Klein who won in 2006 against long term incumbent Clay Shaw. The district is Republican leaning with and Klein is up against a strong Republican Challenger (Adam West). The other race is FL-25, an open seat currently represented by a Republican.

Another market the DCCC has heavily invested in is Cleveland. There is not a single “competitive” Republican district in the Cleveland DMA, there are however, two “competitive” Democrat incumbent districts. There are strong Republican challengers in OH-13 against Betty Sutton (who has less Cash on Hand then her opponent Tom Ganley), as well as OH-16, where Democrat John Boccieri is not the safest of bets.

These are all extremely important as even the DCCC has admitted they can only seriously target four districts. As a result, while the DCCC may be playing a good defense, this will only make the Democrats feel each loss more because there are less opportunities to pick up seats and lessen the certain pain of the 2010 mid-term elections.

Regulation and Disclosure in the Modern Age: Political Internet Advertising and Social Media

Thursday, August 5th, 2010

            In the wake of rapid growth of Internet political advertising, it is no wonder that America Online (AOL) has decided to claim their stake. On October 21, 2009, AdWeek predicted an overall increase of 11% on political advertisements this year from the amount spent during the 2008 cycle. $50 million was predicted to be spent on online political advertising alone.[1] According to CMAG, the amount spent on political advertising online this year as already reached $30 million (more than was spent on political online advertising by nonpresidential candidates in the entire 2008 election cycle), and we are not even out of the primaries and into the general election cycle, when the majority of campaign spending is likely to happen.

             AOL is not the only group looking for a piece of the pie. In California, The Fair Political Practices Commission is exploring ways to regulate new political appeals via modern forms of media. The commission is contemplating ways to place restrictions on political advertisement over the Internet and other forms of communication, such as text messages and social networking sites like YouTube or Facebook. “To put it simply: the subcommittee is recommending that paid political advertising online should be subject to the same disclosure regulations as mailers, phone calls, and television commercials.”[2] But there are hurdles. Online advertisements come in a wide variety of shapes and sizes, from pup-ups to banners. Online videos can be several seconds or many minutes long. How do you place disclosure standards on a 140 character tweet or a limited text message? Often bloggers are paid by campaigns to publicly ‘advertise’ their opinions of a candidate or proposition. Currently, the targeting of regulation in California makes an exception for bloggers-even if paid directly by the campaigns. However, this could change with time.

            With increased focus and a larger slice of campaign budgets dedicated to Internet spending, this trend of oversight and regulation is almost a certainty in the near future. My prediction.. This is headed to the national stage and federal level. “Like California’s current regulations, federal campaign watchdogs regulate only paid political advertising, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. Other states also are just beginning to consider whether their disclosure laws are sufficient to cover modern communications.” [3]

1. Bachman, Katy. “Political Advertising to Surge in 2010,” AdWeek. 10/21/2009

2. “Politicians’ Accountability Extends Online,” San Francisco Chronicle. 8/4/2010

3. Thompson, Don. “California Campaign Watchdog Eyes New Internet Rules,” Silicon Valley Mercury News. 8/2/2010

SMG’s 8/3 Primary Kansas City Stars

Wednesday, August 4th, 2010

                Three of Smart Media Groups clients, we were honored to be a part of, won GOP primaries last night, all including Kansas City as their main market.  These races varied in scope and size, ranging from the US Senate race in Kansas to a Missouri State Senate district.

                In the Kansas GOP primary for the US Senate, KS-1 Congressman Jerry Moran defeated KS-4 Congressman Todd Tiahrt 49% to 45%.  Moran held a comfortable lead in spending and polling leading up to the election and will face Dr. Lisa Johnston in November. Meanwhile for Congress, Kansas State Rep. Kevin Yoder cruised to victory over former state Rep. Patricia Lightner 45% to 37%.  The “Yoder Voters” will be needed in November to upset Stephene Moore, wife of the retiring incumbent Dennis Moore.  Last, but certainly not least, in a tight battle for Missouri’s 8th State Senate District, state Rep. Will Kraus edged out fellow state Rep. Bryan Pratt 40% to 38% despite being outspent $148k to $85k.

                National or local, Smart Media Group’s clients in Kansas City are primed for successful runs in November.

DCCC Spending in Washington, DC

Tuesday, August 3rd, 2010

The DCCC recently placed millions of advertising dollars in several broadcast markets throughout the country for the upcoming 2010 congressional elections. While it may be abundantly clear in some media markets which congressional districts the DCCC’s spending correlates with, it remains to be yet determined in others. Some Designated Market Areas (DMAs) span multiple state boarders, covering several different congressional districts. This market spill-in and spill-out into different congressional districts opens the possibility for several different scenarios. Since the DCCC has not disclosed on their broadcast orders which district their spending applies to, we won’t really know until the ads air on television. In the meantime, however, we can make some educated guesses!

For example, the DCCC placed $950k in the Washington, DC broadcast market for October 2010. There are fourteen congressional districts which fall under the Washington, DC market. Below is a map of the Washington, DC broadcast market, and the congressional districts which fall under it’s broadcast area.

This map below shows each district and it’s full area spanning outside of the DC broadcast market.

Finally, the darker shaded portions of the congressional districts in this third map represent which parts of the districts fall under the DC broadcast area. As you can see, only a few of these congressional districts fall under the DC broadcast area in their entirety: VA-11, VA-08, VA-10, MD-04, MD-8 to name a few. Other districts, such as WV-01, WV-02, PA-09, and VA-06 only have one or two counties which fall under the DC market area.

So which district will receive the brunt of the DCCC’s $950k DC ad campaign in October? In this case, it makes the most sense that the DCCC would put their resources towards VA-11, where the Republican candidate Keith Fimian will challenge Gerry Connolly for the second time. The other districts in Maryland and Virginia do not appear to have any real contestants running against the incumbents. It would be extremely inefficient to place ad dollars in the DC market for PA-09, since Fulton County is the only county in PA-09 which falls into that market; the majority of the district falls into the Harrisburg-Lancaster and Johnstown-Altoona markets. Although WV-01 looks like it could be a toss-up election, it would also be an inefficient buy since most of the district falls under the Clarksburg-Weston and Wheeling-Stubenville markets.

But what about the markets in which the DCCC has placed, and it is not abundantly clear which district the buy correlates with? For example, the DCCC has also placed ad advertising schedule in the Phoenix, AZ broadcast market for October. There are a handful of Arizona districts which this could apply to – only time will tell.

The Evolution of Political Internet Advertisement: From National to Local and Candidate to Issue

Tuesday, August 3rd, 2010

The evolution of the Internet in political advertising is a relatively recent phenomenon. However, it is certainly not unknown. The rise of Internet prominence in the campaign arena brought a flood of discussion across the media, academia, political professional circles—and of course, the blogs–regarding its impact.

                Reflecting back on the past decade or so it would be difficult to forget (or dismiss) the rapidly increasing presence of the Internet in the campaign advertising world. Jesse Ventura is generally given credit for pioneering the idea of political organizing via the Internet during his successful 1998 campaign for Minnesota governor. In 2000, Arizona Senator (and 2000 presidential candidate), John McCain, raised record amounts of Internet donations for his campaign. [1.] “In the week after the senator from Arizona won the New Hampshire primary that year, supporters flooded his campaign website with $2.2 million in contributions.” [2.] George Bush also received record Internet fundraising in 2000. TIME Magazine reported, “In 2000, George W. Bush revolutionized campaign fund raising—and shattered existing records—by creating a muscular network of “bundlers,” each of whom committed to bring in $100,000, $200,000 or more from friends and associates.”[3.] In 2004, Howard Dean would again shatter previous Internet fundraising records through creative innovations in online advertising and soliciting for donations.

                Not surprisingly, by the 2008 election cycle, political advertising and Internet fundraising had become the norm for sending e-mail updates, event notices, pleas for fundraising, volunteer sign-ups, poll location information and local supporter organization. By the end of the first quarter of 2008, over a million people had donated more than $230 million to the Obama Campaign… undeniably the envy of Hillary Clinton’s camp. [4.] Obama had recruited hordes of donors and likely voters via the Internet through a highly modern and innovative advertising campaign.

                One thing that these historical examples of political Internet solicitation have in common is that they all revolve around major political campaigns; making its debut during a statewide governor race and then quickly ascending to the national level to play a role in competitive presidential bids—a place where the Internet is extremely useful in reaching voters across the nation.  However, today Internet advertising has begun to mature as a political advertising medium. Its role in national campaigns will only increase. Similarly, its function in local and statewide fundraising is also developing rapidly. This is not limited to candidate races, issue groups and action committees are also gaining an increased share from Internet advertising.

                Following this trend, on July 22, 2010, America Online launched the AOL Advertising Politics hub. MediaWeek explains, “the AOL Advertising Politics hub (www.advertising.aol.com/politics) …is designed to serve as a sales tool and do-it-yourself ad purchasing platform for political advertisers.”[5.] This site will allow media buyers to easily navigate the vastly fragmented Internet audience and target likely voters and donors. It will also allow small organizations to act directly on the grassroots level and bypass traditional marketing firms and buying agencies. With an ever increasing role in the use of Internet advertising and the 2010 midterm election cycle now entering the General Phase, it will be interesting to watch the development of web solicitation. Going further, political advertising professionals and the general voting population alike will almost certainly see some form of record setting Internet advertising and fundraising during the coming campaign seasons.

  1.  Drinkard, Jim and Lawrence, Jill. “Online, off and running: Web a new campaign front,” USA TODAY, 7/14/2003
  2. Barnes, James A. “Online Fundraising Revolution,” National Journal, 4/19/2008
  3. Tumulty, Karen. “Obama’s Viral Marketing Campaign,” TIME Magazine, 7/5/2007
  4. Barnes, 2008.
  5. Shields, Mike. “AOL Launches AOL Advertising Politics,” MediaWeek, 7/22/2010