As we’ve watched this cycle boom and bust, incumbents have gone down or won by the skin of their teeth in both parties, and upset candidates have come out of nowhere.  In many of these cases its because of 3^rd party actors.   In the case of recently nominated candidate Sharron Angle, 3^rd party spending may have been the deciding factor.  In the week before the primary election on June 8^th 3^rd Party Actors (Tea Party Express, Our Country Deserves Better PAC, and Club for Growth) spent over $110k in Las Vegas and Reno Broadcast running ads touting Angle and disparaging her primary former Party Chairman Sue Lowden.  This $130k buy (plus her own $19k) allowed Sharron Angle to compete financially with her much better funded opponent Sue Lowden who was able to spend $97k in the final week of the election.

On the other hand if you have nothing but enemies, things can get pretty painful.   Just recently Inc. Sen. Blanche Lincoln was primaried by Lt. Gov. Bill Halter.  Lincoln had maintained a record that was deemed unacceptably pure by the National Democrat base.   As a result, this Arkansas Democrat was brutally attacked by outside interests including the Communications Workers of America, AFSCME, and Arkansans for Change.  These organizations expended over $897k in broadcast television alone in their war on Lincoln.   These attacks, plus the Halter campaign’s significant financial resources, forced the Lincoln campaign to spend over 85% of her campaign fund before she’s reached the general.  This spending had substantively negative impact on the Lincoln campaign.  Lincoln was barely re-elected in a run-off (receiving 52% of the vote).  As of the 5/18 FEC filing, Lincoln (the two-term incumbent) will be forced to enter the General Election in a situation of (roughly) financial parity with her opponent, Congressman John Boozeman.

As a result, we can see the importance of 3^rd party spending and making sure that you have a little help from your friends………………