With the Kentucky Senate Primary being one of the hottest in the nation (and happening today!), we at Smart Media Group wanted to do a quick recap of the situation this morning while voters go to the polls. Trey Grayson has outspent Paul in the vast majority of the state, losing only in the Paducah and Cincinnati markets. Despite beating Paul in the spending contest (Grayson outspent Paul by about $172k) Paul is cruising to victory in the latest polls.

Despite Grayson’s spending advantages, he is currently down by almost 20%in the Pollster average. Based off of Grayson and Paul’s spending information, however, we would expect Grayson to most outperform his statewide results in the Lexington and Charleston-Huntington DMAs. These are the two markets that Grayson most outspent Paul ($60k & $21k respectively). We would expect Paul to outperform his state average in the Cincinnati and Paducah Markets where he outspent Grayson by approximately $12k and $2k.

The spending information show that Paul has put significantly more money than Grayson into the 3rd biggest market in the state (Cincinnati), whereas Grayson has outspent Paul in the biggest Market in the state (Lexington). As a result, while Grayson has outspent Paul in almost every market in the state (totaling some 84.11% of registered voters), Paul’s strong lead in the Polls will make this an interesting study in buying effectiveness once we have the final results.