The Kentucky Republican nomination for its U.S. Senate seat is a highly competitive race with national focus. In it we are seeing an intra-Republican party fight highlighting the feud between the establishment Republican Party (embodied by Secretary of State Trey Grayson) and outsider Tea-party candidate Rand Paul (the son of US Congressman Ron Paul). As you can see in an earlier post Grayson and Paul are involved in a fight and spending left and right to see who runs the Grand Old Party. The candidates have spent a combined total of $1.7 million in a two month campaign. We at Smart Media Group are left with one big question. Who is buying more effectively?
To determine this we’ve a simple marginal cost analysis to see who is paying the least amount of money per point they gain in the polls, and how much will they have to spend to cross the finish line and reach that 50 plus one margin of victory.
The answer is Rand Paul. Paul has paid a total of $149k per polling point during the month of March. Grayson on the other hand was paying $198k per polling point during the month of March. This means that not only is Paul buying more effectively than Secretary Grayson, it also means that with his current lead in the polls Paul’s total price to victory would be $746k (well within his current Cash on Hand) compared to Grayson’s whopping $3.9 million dollars (or 3 times his total Cash on Hand at the end of the Quarter).