Archive for July, 2009

Did Big Money Equal Big Wins for DCCC in 2008?

Tuesday, July 28th, 2009

In the 2008 election, the DCCC spent $60 million dollars to help the Democrats gain 21 seats in Congress, outspending the NRCC by a 3-1 margin. Did this financial advantage allow the DCCC to spend in more races or spend a lot in a few key races?

When looking at the highest spending races, both parties were effective in different ways. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) placed over $1 million dollars on TV advertising in 34 different races, while the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) could only match in 7 of those same races. Strangely enough, each committee won 70% of the races they placed in. Even further, the DCCC also spent $2 million or more in 9 races, losing 4 of them (including NJ-07 and NY-26), despite the NRCC not being able to match those amounts.

GOP incumbents were a major target for the DCCC, going on the offensive in 15 of the 34 races they spent a million or more, while only trying to defend 8 Democratic incumbents, while the remaining 11 were open seats. Meanwhile, the NRCC defended 6 of their incumbents in the 7 races they spent 1 million plus, successfully defending 4 of them. Using the limited resources at their disposal, the NRCC was able to defend the same amount of seats that the DCCC spent $2 to even $3 million in losing efforts in other races. While the NRCC appears to have been more efficient, the DCCC had the ability to take more chances in expensive races, but in the end both sides came away with the same winning percentage.

Republican and Democratic Winning Percentage Chart by Spending Level and Incumbency

Republican

Democratic

Victories

%

Victories

%

DCCC spent $1 mil+

11

32%

23

68%

NRCC spent $1 mil+

5

71%

2

29%

DCCC spent $2 mil+

4

44%

5

56%

Republican Incumbent

6

40%

9

60%

Democratic Incumbent

2

25%

6

75%

Will a Garden Trip be Enough to Make Christie Governor of the Garden State?

Tuesday, July 14th, 2009

A “garden trip” in harness racing is when a horse has the position on the rail just behind the leader, thought by most to be ideal.  In the New Jersey Governor’s race, Chris Christie seems to be in great position, running with a law enforcement background against an unpopular incumbent.  But things aren’t always as they seem.

Strike 1-  Christie has led every poll taken over the last month, but voters in New Jersey historically decide late. Just ask Tom Kean Jr.

Strike 2 – Christie, by taking public funding, must limit his campaign spending to $15.9 million. Corzine could easily double or triple that amount.

Strike 3 – NJ has over 725,ooo more Democrats than Republicans, and is trending more Democratic (See: NJ Turns a Darker Shade of Blue).

Strike 4 – Corzine is polling very low among Democrats, around 70%, but Christie was unable to reach 60% in the June Republican primary.

While the State of New Jersey would clearly be better off if Chris Christie were elected as its next Governor, hwever history is not on his side.  After all, Republicans have not elected a Senator in New Jersey since 1972, and only three Republicans have been elected Governor in the last 50 years.

Supreme Court Leaves Door Open on Corporate Political Spending

Wednesday, July 8th, 2009

This week the Supreme Court postponed a decision on Citizens United v. FEC.  This case arose after the FEC, banned Citizens United, a non profit group from running ads promoting a documentary critical of Senator Clinton during the Presidential primaries called “Hillary: The Movie.”  The Court ordered both sides to argue if Austin v. Chamber of Commerce and Section 203 of McConnell v. FEC should be overturned.

Reversing these decisions would be a major victory for free speech proponents as Austin upholds the ban on corporate political spending and Section 203 of McConnell prohibits corporate and labor union spending on broadcast, cable, satellite TV and radio leading up to an election.  This decision, reschedule for the fall has the potential to open up a wave of third party political spending as well as removing the FEC from having to decide what qualifies as a legal expenditure.

Reference: 6/29/09 National Review: Bench Memo

NJ Turns a Darker Shade of Blue

Tuesday, July 7th, 2009

Since the last gubernatorial election in 2005, the number of registered voters in New Jersey has remained steady at approximately 4.8 million, with 24% of voters registered as Democrats, 18% registered as Republicans, and 58% registered with another political party or unaffiliated with any political party at all. But during the Presidential election year of 2008, the state registered 554,000 new voters, bringing the total amount of registered voters up to 5.3 million. Where did these additional voters come from, and what party did they register under?

The number of registered voters under the Democratic Party rose from 24% in 2007 to 33% in 2008.  Bergen, Essex, Middlesex, Hudson, and Union County  picked up the majority of the new Democratic voters.  These counties comprise nearly 50% of all registered Democratic voters in the state. Overall, the Democratic Party increased by 618,052 new voters. The increase cannot be solely attributed to new registrants as it is partially due to the decline in unaffiliated voters.  In 2008,  244,000 unaffiliated voters changed their party membership to either Democrat or Republican.

This chart compares registration figures from 2007 to  2008.

The map below shows the counties which experienced the largest increase in Democratic Party registration.

nj-dem-rv21

Yard Signs & Bumper Stickers: Advertising or Annoying?

Monday, July 6th, 2009

An article a few months back in Media magazine raised an interesting issue as to the value out-of-home advertising, particularly in political campaigns.  In political campaigns this usually consists of bumper stickers and yard signs.  While Terry McAulffle proved you can make a big impression with yard signs, do they help craft the desired image of the candidate?

What message is this activist driving?

bumpersticker

Humor is clearly one methods that transcends mediums.

hillarysticker

Bumper stickers and yard signs have always been used to display support among various groups such as: “Women for Obama” – “Veterans for McCain” – “Carpenters for Hillary” these go a step beyond raising awareness and link a candidate to a group that relays something positive about them.  While we have grown accustom to these forms of advertising are they effective outiside of the fact that they are virtually free?  It seems without other forms of advertising to echo a message they do very little to positively define a candidate.  Advertising clutter is not limted to TV and raising awareness becomes difficult when a yard sign in one of four or a sticker is one of twenty.  While it is doubtful the yard signs and bumper stickers will dissappear like campaign buttons, the value added to the candidates may be more annoying than advertising.

Youtube Shows Increase in May 2009 Queries

Thursday, July 2nd, 2009

When Comscore released their May 2009 search engines rankings, Google continues to dominate search with a 65% share, followed by Yahoo at 20% and Microsoft with 8%.  Google increased its share minimally while the others lost share from April to May of 2009.  Google’s increase seems to have been carried by Youtube which experienced a 4% growth in queries. This was only overshadowed by Facebook who experienced a 5% growth.  These trends reinforce the marketing craze surrounding social media and on-line videos.

It will be interesting to see how Microsoft’s June 1 launch of Bing will affect the June rankings.

TV Station Revenue Could Have Major Impact on Pricing for 2009

Thursday, July 2nd, 2009

In a recent MediaWeek article, BIA Advisory Services has lowered its 2009 revenue forecast for TV stations from down 15% to down 17.3% – the lowest annual levels since 1995.

These market conditions make it increasingly difficult for media planners to accurately forecast TV costs.  Industry planning tools such as Spot Quotations And Data (SQAD) are becoming less accurate in planning true costs for 2009. Planners may want to look back to very recent market cost experiences this year and compare these to the projected SQAD costs for the same period.  Once adjustment factors are developed, they could be utilized for projecting forward.

While these are unfortunate times for the TV industry, they are creating opportunities for savvy advertisers.

Where have You Gone Reagan Democrats?

Thursday, July 2nd, 2009

A recent article in Politico highlighted some issues the GOP needs to address to make a comeback.  It pointed out that John McCain won the same percentage of the white vote in 2008 as President Reagan in 1980.  While you don’t need to be Carnac the Magnificent to know our country is changing, understanding how much is essential to fixing the problem.

A March Gallup article showed the change in the generic ballot from 2001 to 2009.  Note: the discrepancy in the Gallup numbers is caused by the 2001 totals only adding up to 99%.  Remember how polarized the country was in 2001? While it was a good year for Republicans, it was far from a landslide as Republicans lost a number Senate seats including Michigan, Minnesota and Washington.  Even more disturbing was a chart that showed the GOP losing ground among every major demographic group.

screen-capture-3

Mike Murphy also noted some interesting trends in a recent Time article, pointing out that the Hispanic vote has grown from 2% in 1980 to 9% in 2008.  This increase effected many key states such as traditionally Republican Indiana, where Hispanic provided President Obama with a 58,000 vote margin in a stated he won by 26,000 votes.

Primary voters are a good indicator of where a poltical party is heading and a review of the elecotrate  July 2008 primary voters in Georgia echoed some of the points above.  Caucasians comprised 97% of the Republican primary vote, also 78% where over the age of 45, 26% older than 65.  Conversely ethnicity in the Democratic primary the same years was evenly split between African-Americans and Caucasians, with 70% over the age of 45 and 19% over 65.

Now that it’s clear the country is changing, the bigger question is what to do about it.